Prediction Tracker

What is this?

This is my public prediction tracker. I make forecasts about future events and assign probability percentages. When predictions resolve, they're scored using the Brier Score - a proper scoring rule that rewards well-calibrated predictions.

How does Brier Scoring work?

The Brier Score measures prediction accuracy: (probability - outcome)²

• If I say 80% and it happens: (0.8 - 1)² = 0.04 (good)
• If I say 80% and it doesn't: (0.8 - 0)² = 0.64 (bad)
• If I say 50% either way: (0.5 - outcome)² = 0.25 (baseline)

A Brier Score below 0.25 means I'm doing better than random chance. The lower, the better.

Categories

• World Events: International affairs, global trends
• U.S. Politics: Elections, legislation, policy
• Business/Finance: Markets, companies, economics
• Sports: Games, championships, player performance
• Misc: Everything else

Change History

When I update a prediction's probability, the change is logged. Click any prediction to see its full history.